Monthly Price Monitoring and Analysis of Maize and Rice in East Africa
Overview
Ongoing analysis of maize and rice price trends in key East African markets to inform agricultural and trade policies.
Research Objectives
Establish a systematic monthly price monitoring system for maize and rice across key markets in East Africa
Track price trends, seasonal patterns, and market integration across Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Rwanda
Analyse factors driving price volatility and their impact on food security for net-buying households
Provide timely price intelligence to policymakers, traders, and development partners for decision-making
Methodology
Monthly price data was collected from primary wholesale and retail markets across four East African countries through a network of trained enumerators using mobile data collection tools. Price transmission analysis examined market integration and the speed at which price changes in one market affect others. Time-series econometric methods were used to identify seasonal patterns, structural breaks, and the drivers of price volatility.
Key Findings
Maize and rice prices showed strong seasonal patterns across all monitored markets, with prices typically peaking in the lean season months of February–April. Market integration was found to be stronger within countries than across borders, suggesting that regional trade policy barriers limit price transmission. The price monitoring system provided early warning signals of food price stress during the 2022 global commodity price shock, enabling targeted policy responses.
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